Activity 2.1

Activity 2.1 - Quantifying N flows, threats and benefits at global and regional scales

The elements of this activity include, establishing a database of shared input and outcomes, providing support to regional inventories and model application, combined analysis of present conditions, and quantifying future threats and benefits at regional and global scales. Together, these elements provide the tasks needed to apply the modelling and measurement developments to build a state-of-the-art picture of current and future N flows, threats and benefits.

The main focus will be on supporting the application of models of the nitrogen cycle that have been developed through activities linked to Component 1 (A1.5). This will include the review and critical assessment of existing models and the review of associated literature. 

  • For this work, it is necessary to develop a common position on the data sources needed for modelling, which form a key part of the databasing activity (Task 2.1.1). It is not possible to support major measurement activities with the level of GEF resources available to Towards INMS. However, links are being made with nitrogen measurement programmes in water, air, soil etc enabling the databse to make the links to key data sources. This is benefiting from the activities in Component 1 on threats, fluxes and levels (A1.2, A1.3).
  • This activity also allows partners of Towards INMS to share expertise across the project, especially in the development of methods for inventory development and model application. The task can also be useful for sharing expertise on nitrogen measurement methods, especially in linking up between air, land and water parts of the nitrogen cycle (Task 2.1.2).
  • Task 2.1.3 focuses on bringing together the different model components to deliver an overall analysis of nitrogen flows and impacts for present day conditions. It builds on the review of available models and model development activities of Component 1, encouring wide involvement from different groups.
  • Based on the global scale modelling of N flows, threats and benefits for present conditions (Task 2.1.3) this approach is then extended to address key global scenarios of possible future conditions. This is informed by Activity 2.4 which is developing future nitrogen storylines and scenarios (Task 2.1.4).

The largest fraction of this activity is dedicated to application of the developed models for different parts of the nitrogen cycle, with particular emphasis on the application of the model cluster to be established in Activity 1.5. While the first stage is on developing a joined-up model assessment of the main sources, flows, threats, and benefits for current conditions, input from Activity 2.4 is being used to inform the model application for future scenarios.

Activity 2.1 is being delivered under Component 2. The diagram below shows the tasks and task outputs delivered for this activity.