Activity 2.1 - Quantifying N flows, threats and benefits at global and regional scales
The elements of this activity include, establishing a database of shared input and outcomes, providing support to regional inventories and model application, combined analysis of present conditions, and quantifying future threats and benefits at regional and global scales. Together, these elements provide the tasks needed to apply the modelling and measurement developments to build a state-of-the-art picture of current and future N flows, threats and benefits.
The main focus will be on supporting the application of models of the nitrogen cycle that have been developed through activities linked to Component 1 (A1.5). This will include the review and critical assessment of existing models and the review of associated literature.
- For this work, it will be necessary to develop a common position on the data sources needed for modelling, which will form a key part of the databasing activity (Task 2.1.1). It will not be possible to support major measurement activities with the level of GEF resources available to Towards INMS. However, links will be made with nitrogen measurement programmes in water, air, soil etc enabling the databse to make the links to key data sources. This will benefit from the activities in Component 1 on threats, fluxes and levels (A1.2, A1.3).
- This activity will also allow partners of Towards INMS to share expertise across the project, especially in the development of methods for inventory development and model application. The task can also be useful for sharing expertise on nitrogen measurement methods, especially in linking up between air, land and water parts of the nitrogen cycle (Task 2.1.2).
- Task 2.1.3 will focus on bringing together the different model components to deliver an overall analysis of nitrogen flows and impacts for present day conditions. It will build on the review of available models and model development activities of Component 1, encouring wide involvement from different groups.
- Based on the global scale modelling of N flows, threats and benefits for present conditions (Task 2.1.3) the approach will then be extended to address key global scenarios of possible future conditions. This will be informed by Activity 2.4 which will work to develop future nitrogen storylines and scenarios (Task 2.1.4).
The largest fraction of this activity is dedicated to application of the developed models for different parts of the nitrogen cycle, with particular emphasis on the application of the model cluster to be established in Activity 1.5. While the first stage is on developing a joined-up model assessment of the main sources, flows, threats and benefits for current conditions, input from Activity 2.4 will be used to inform the model application for future scenarios.
Activity 2.1 will be delivered under Component 2. The diagram below shows the tasks and task outputs delivered for this activity.